According to a January edition of the RBI’s monthly bulletin, the goal for the 2024–2025 fiscal year should be to maintain the current growth rate by achieving real GDP growth of at least 7%.

As of March 31, 2024, the current fiscal year, the RBI has projected a real GDP growth of 7%. The National Statistical Office (NSO) published the first advance estimate earlier this month, predicting 7.3% growth in the national economy for the current fiscal year. In Davos on Wednesday, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das predicted that India’s GDP would grow by 7% in 2024–2025.

While the difference is small, potential output in India is beginning to rise while actual output still exceeds it. According to the RBI article, maintaining this momentum in 2024–2025 should be the goal of achieving real GDP growth of at least 7% in a macroeconomically stable environment. Thus, by the anticipated second quarter of the year, inflation must match the target and become fixed there, the report stated.

The government requires the RBI to maintain the CPI between two and six per cent. According to year-over-year fluctuations in the consumer price index (CPI) for all of India, headline inflation increased slightly from 5.6% in November 2022 to 5.7% in December 2023. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projects the CPI to print at 5.4% for the fiscal year 2024–25. The first quarter of Q1FY25 is expected to see 5.2% CPI inflation, followed by Q2’s 4% and Q3’s 4.7%.

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During his Davos speech, Das stated that he anticipated an average CPI inflation rate of roughly 4.5% in FY 2024–2025.

According to the RBI’s most recent Financial Stability Report (FSR), which was made public last month, in September 2023, the percentage of banks’ gross non-performing assets (GNPAs) fell to a multi-year low of 3.2%, while the percentage of their net non-performing assets (NNPAs) dropped to 0.8%.

According to the article, the benefits of the revolutionary technological shift must be maximized for inclusive and participatory growth in a safe, risk-free environment.

It stated that “the corporate sector, augmented by foreign direct investment, must partner and even lead the virtuous thrust to investment from government capex.”