China’s Evergrande Crisis: Will it lead world to another global stock market plummet
Stock markets around the world have been keeping a close eye for any possible market turbulence as concerns keep growing over the possibility of massive defaults by one of the biggest Chinese real estate developers Evergrande Group.
The risks are high, that the embattled firm will default on upcoming payments later this week even as its chairman tried to lift confidence. The group’s shares have plunged nearly 80 percent this year and already faced multiple downgrades by rating agencies.
Angry home buyers are waiting while there are as many as 1.6 million apartments to be completed. Suppliers of cement, paint, and rebar are owed more than $100 billion in payments. Workers are panicking that loans they made to their employer cannot be repaid. Evergrande’s troubles have raised doubts among various share market experts that China’s residential and commercial property market, which drives up to a third of the world’s second-largest economy, could crumble.
The disorderly collapse for a company of Evergrande’s size could cause ripple effects in China and beyond, including scaring off investors that have bet tens of billions of dollars on both the company and the property sector’s success.“If we’re in this downward spiral, then without a credible intervention we are going to see an awful lot of property developers getting into trouble,” said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University.
While market observers once took as a given that Beijing would step in at the first sign of distress, now predict that Beijing will not intervene until other property developers begin to fail and pose a collective risk to the broader financial system.
When it comes to Evergrande, Beijing is posed with two bad options. Regulators could step in and force state banks to give the company the money it needs to clear off the debts of suppliers, construction workers, home buyers, etc. But this could lead to a bad example for other developers who would then continue bingeing in dept and fuelling an even bigger property bubble, something that Beijing has already stated as intolerable it could simply walk away and let Evergrande fall completely, something it is ” unwilling to do because that could result in a collapse in the economy “.
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