According to the India Meteorological Department, a very strong cyclonic storm, Tauktae (pronounced Tau’Te), is forecast to intensify further and reach the Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Mahuva on May 18 early morning between 2.30 am and 5.30 am with a speed of 155 to 165 kmph gusting to 185 kmph, causing considerable damage in the affected districts (IMD).
Porbandar, Amreli Junagarh, Gir Somnath, Botad, Bhavnagar, and Ahmedabad’s coastal areas are predicted to be hit hard.
Total destruction of thatched buildings is expected, as is substantial damage to kutcha houses; some damage to pucca houses; the probable threat from flying debris; bending or uprooting of power and communication poles; substantial damage to roads; flooding of escape routes; moderate disruption of trains; overhead power lines and signalling systems; widespread damage to salt ponds and standing crops; bushy trees may be blown down; small boats and country watercraft may become dislodged from their moorings; visibility may be severely impaired.
Devbhoomi Dwarka, Kutch, Jamnagar, Rajkot, Morbi, Valsad, Surat, Vadodara, Bharuch, Navsari, and Anand districts are also predicted to suffer some damage.
IMD has urged that people be evacuated from susceptible places, that fishing operations be completely halted, that rail and road traffic be judiciously regulated, that individuals in impacted areas stay indoors, and that movement in motor boats and small ships be avoided.
Tauktae’s extraction of energy from the water will intensify during the next 12 hours. It is likely to proceed north northwestwards, reaching the Gujarat coast on Monday evening and crossing the coast fairly early on Tuesday morning. Doppler weather RADAR Goa is keeping an eye on the situation.
On Monday and Tuesday, the sea conditions across the northwestern Arabian Sea will be extremely high to exceptional, with waves up to 14 metres high and winds up to 64 knots. On Monday morning, the sea will be rough to rough (wave height 9-14 meters/wind speed 38-63 knots) along and off the north Maharashtra coast.
From Monday morning, it’s quite likely to be extremely rough to high along and off the south Gujarat coast, and from Monday, it’ll be very high to spectacular.
During the time of landfall, a tidal wave exceeding the astronomical tide (of roughly 3 m over Junagarh, 1 to 2.5 m over Diu, Gir Somnath, Amreli, Bharuch, Bhavnagar, Ahmedabad, Anand, Surat, and 0.5-1 m over Devbhoomi Dwarka, Jamnagar, Porbandar, and Kutch) is expected to inundate the coastal areas.
Light to moderate rain is expected in most locations, with heavy to very heavy rain in a few places and extremely heavy rain (over 20 cm) in a few locations across the south Konkan, north Konkan, and Goa and bordering Ghat areas, and heavy to very heavy rain in isolated regions on Monday.
From Monday midnight to Tuesday morning, gale winds of 70-90 kmph with gusts up to 100 kmph are expected along and off the coasts of Dadra, Nagar Haveli, Daman, Valsad, Navsari, Surat, and Kheda districts.