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Most Film Friendly State of India is Madhya Pradesh

The India Saga Saga |

The Most Film Friendly State Award was announced today by the Chairman of the Jury, Ramesh Sippy. The Most Film Friendly State Awards would be presented by President of India on May 3rd, 2018 during the presentation of the National Film Awards.

Madhya Pradesh was conferred the award for the Most Film Friendly State for its efforts towards easing filming in the State by creating a well-structured web site, film friendly infrastructure, offering incentives, maintaining databases, undertaking marketing and promotional initiatives, unanimously by the Jury from among the 16 States that participated. Madhya Pradesh also received positive feedback from established filmmakers who have shot there.

The efforts taken by the State to present their case for the Awards were also appreciated. State of Uttarakhand is given a Special Mention Certificate to recognize the efforts made by the State of Uttarakhand towards creating a film friendly environment.

Speaking on the occasion, Ramesh Sippy Chairman of the Jury said “The Jury members laud the continuing efforts of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat towards creating a film friendly eco system in their States and hope that they keep up the good work. This year Madhya Pradesh where a lot of filmmakers have shot over the years, has won the award due to the ease of filming that the State offers along with excellent on ground support and filmic infrastructure, an informative website and incentives for film making. Their entry was also presented beautifully with all required documents given in a very comprehensive manner. The jury would like to acknowledge the sincere efforts made by Uttarakhand in this direction, despite it being a relatively new State with a difficult terrain and hence has been given the Special Mention.”

The jury for selecting the Most Film Friendly State Award 2017 was chaired by acclaimed filmmaker Ramesh Sippy and comprising of renowned filmmakers, Nagraj Manjule, Raja Krishna Menon, Vivek Agnihotri, and Shri Uday Singh, MD, Motion Picture Distributors Association.

Home Based Care for Young Child Crucial Component of Poshan Abhiyaan

The India Saga Saga |

Home-based Care for Young Child (HBYC) would be a crucial component of POSHAN Abhiyaan. Under this, ASHAs supported by Anganwadi workers (AWW) will visit the homes of children aged between 3 to 15 months and sensitise mothers on energy density and diet of child.

The HBYC would be rolled out within a month as will the social and behaviour change road map and action. The focus of the National Nutrition Mission will be on the first 1000 days of the child. 

These announcements were made at the first meeting of National Council on India’s Nutrition Challenges under POSHAN Abhiyaan was held today. The Council which has been set up under POSHAN Abhiyaan is the apex body to formulate overall policies, guide and monitor all nutrition based schemes. 

It was announced that the first lot of 40 Swasth Bharat Preraks is being dispatched by end of the month and would be available at district level to assist the staff in smooth roll-out. Under the Abhiyaan, Swasth Bharat Preraks will be deployed one in each District for coordinating with District officials and enabling fast and efficient execution of the Abhiyaan across the country. Swasth Bharat Preraks would function as a catalyst for fast tracking the implementation of the Abhiyaan. By July 2018, 315 Swasth Bharat Preraks are likely to be deployed in 315 districts of Phase I of the POSHAN Abhiyaan.

The mandate of the Council is to provide policy directions to address India’s nutrition challenges through coordinated inter-sectoral action, coordinate and review convergence among ministries, and to review programmes for nutrition on a quarterly basis.

The meeting also decided to include another 235 districts as part of phase 2 of Poshan Abhiyan in 2018-19, taking the total number of districts to 550. The selection of the districts has been made on the basis of level of stunting, all left wing extremism (105) and aspirational districts (117), and whenever a gap of 1 district was left to achieve saturation in States/UTs.

As many as 315 districts were already covered under the first phase of Poshan Abhiyan. The remaining 167, out of a total of 718 districts will be covered under phase 3.

Taking cognisance of the problems in procurement of tablets for Anganwadi supervisors raised by the participants, the Council decided to procure Smartphones instead of tablets.

Dr. Rajiv Kumar, Vice Chairman Niti Aayog stressed on the need for ground level work and participation from all sectors, for converting the mission into mass movement and achieving the goals. 

Dr. Vinod Paul, Member, NITI Aayog in his address highlighted that the focus is on the first 1000 days of the child and preventive care for adolescent girls, women and mothers. He also said that the meeting decided to conduct pilot in 10 districts for conditional cash transfer (CCT) through direct benefit transfer but States/UTs to continue their existing system of providing supplementary nutrition under Anganwadi services.

Dr. Rajesh Kumar, Joint Secretary, said that various incentives have been made a part of POSHAN Abhiyaan. To encourage Anganwadi workers to use mobile phones for real time monitoring (ICT-RTM), incentive funds shall be provided for each Anganwadi worker per month. It will be linked to the achievements of certain targets.

Centralised call centre will be established for monitoring, grievance redressal and interventions. Speaking on the importance of ICDS-CAS, he said that it will help in collecting real time data enabling supportive supervision and timely intervention by department officials. He also added that it would further create robust monitoring, evaluation and analysis platform at all hierarchical levels, through an integrated dashboard. E learning module has also been created for Anganwadi workers. Comprehensive Guidelines and Manuals are now available at State Level for all Abhiyaan Components.

Mr Rakesh Srivastava, Secretary, WCD Ministry said that there is a need to ensure convergence of various programmes spread across Ministries such as Anganwadi Services, Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana, Scheme for Adolescent Girls of Ministry of Women & Child Development; Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), National Health Mission (NHM), Home-based New born Care, Home-Based Yong Child Care, Anemia Mukt Bharat  and Rashtrya Bal Swasth Krayakram of MoH&FW;   Swachchh Bharat Mission, Construction of toilets and WASH of Ministry of Drinking Water & Sanitation (DW&S);    Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS),  of Ministry of Rural Development (MoRD); and  Drinking Water & Toilets with Ministry of Panchayati Raj.

India, Sweden Announce Joint Innovation Partnership

The India Saga Saga |

STOCKHOLM:  India and Sweden on Tuesday announced the adoption of the Joint Action Plan aimed at implementing the joint innovation partnership between them.

After the delegation level talks here, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Swedish counterpart Stefan Lofven witnessed the signing and exchange of  Joint Innovation Partnership and  announcement of adoption of the Joint Action Plan.

Infusing new energy into their bilateral relations, Mr. Modi and Mr. Lofven held fruitful discussion on issues related to cooperation in innovation, trade and investment and culture.  “I would like to commend the Indian government  and its strong focus on innovation as a key to progress and prosperity,’’ said  Mr. Löfven

The two leaders also exchanged views on regional and multilateral cooperation at the delegation-level talks. There are excellent opportunities for cooperation in the fields of smart cities, clean technology, universal housing, renewable energy, e-mobility, start-up, waste disposal, and many others with an objective of creating jobs and sustainable development for the people in India.  They had a productive exchange of views on bilateral and regional issues.

Setting the tone for a fruitful exchange of views at the talks, the two Prime Ministers walked together from the residence of Mr. Lofven to office for the delegation-level talks.

“Sweden can be our important partner in seeking innovative solutions for developmental challenges facing India today.  A relationship that has grown in intensity over the years and has a huge potential.  The two leaders had a productive exchange of views on bilateral and regional issues,’’ Ministry of External Affairs official spokesperson Raveesh Kumar said in a series of tweets.

At the City Hall, Prime Minister Modi exhorted top Swedish CEOs to invest in India and participate in India’s flagship initiatives. Both Mr. Modi and Mr. Lofven interacted with top business leaders at the Roun.

In his press statement after meeting with Mr. Lofven,  Prime Minister Modi highlighted innovation, investment, start up and manufacturing as the main areas of cooperation.

Prime Minister Modi tweeted Sweden has been “a strong contributor to our ‘Make in India’ program. Swedish PM led a big delegation to the Mumbai summit in 2016.’’

“This is my first visit to Sweden and a visit by an Indian PM after a gap of nearly 30 years,’’ Mr. Modi tweeted soon after arriving in Stockholm.

Earlier, Mr. Modi began his day with a call on the  King Carl XVI Gustaf of Sweden. Leaders exchanged views on strengthening bilateral cooperation across several sectors.

PM Modi In Sweden

The India Saga Saga |

Sweden : PM Narendra Modi has arrived in Sweden late night on Monday 9:30 p.m. (local time) to embark on his two-day visit to Sweden as part of the India-Nordic Summit. 

Prime Minister Modi was received by his Swedish counterpart Stefan Lofven at the Stolkhome Arlanda airport. 

Prime Minister Modi also received a ceremonial reception. 

PM Modi’s visit to the India-Nordic Summit is likely to strengthen ties with Sweden and increase bilateral trades between the two nations countries. He is on the first leg of his five-day tour which will also take him to the UK where he will attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM).

Raveesh Kumar spokesperson MEA tweeted “Scripting history! PM @narendramodi arrives in Stockholm on a first bilateral visit by an Indian PM in 30 years to a warm and personal welcome by @SwedishPM Stefan Löfven at the airport and to participate in the first ever India-Nordic Summit.”

The bilateral ties between India and Sweden go back to the 1940s. Several companies have engaged in trade leading to the establishment of bilateral trade of more than USD 2.2 billion as of 2016.

Cash Crunch : Non Functional ATMS to be Normalized Soon assures Finance Ministry

The India Saga Saga |

NEW DELHI : There are reports of cash shortages and some ATMs running dry of cash or becoming non-functional in some parts of the country.

There has been unusual spurt in currency demand in the country in last three months. In the current month, in the first 13 days itself, the currency supply increased by Rs.45000 crores.  This unusual spurt in demand is seen more in some parts of the country like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, MP and Bihar.

The Government of India with the Reserve Bank of India have taken all steps to meet this unusual demand. We had adequate reserves of currency notes which have been used to meet fully the extraordinary demand generated so far.  We continue to have in stock adequate currency notes of all denominations, including of Rs.500, 200 and Rs.100 to meet any demand.

The Government would like to assure all the people that there have been adequate supply of currency notes which have met entire demand so far. The government would also like to assure that it would be supplying adequate currency notes to meet even higher levels of demand if such demand were to continue in the coming days/months.  

The Government is taking all steps to ensure that ATMs are supplied with cash and to get non-functional ATMs normalised at the earliest.

Indian Monsoon Recovering After Decades of Decline

The India Saga Saga |

Pune: As the parched Indian subcontinent eagerly awaits the monsoon, all indications are that it will be a normal monsoon, especially since no El Niño is in the offing for 2018. 

The long-term monsoon trend has been getting much attention recently. The seasonal total rainfall which has decreased by about 10% since the 1950s till the beginning of the 21st century, is reported to be ‘recovering’. This may sound like good news but the details may matter as to how the rainfall will be distributed in terms of frequency and intensity. Heatwaves, droughts and floods are serious socioeconomic hazards for India and a monsoon recovery will not necessarily mean a reduction in these hazards.

As the Sun crosses the equator into the Northern Hemisphere on March 20, Indian landmass begins to warm up. Due to its lower heat capacity compared to the ocean, it warms faster than the Indian Ocean and thus a northward increase in air temperature is set up which is critical for initiating the monsoon circulation and the supply of moisture from the ocean over to land. 

The impact of increased greenhouse gases and atmospheric dust in addition to land use changes such those in forestation are the controlling factors that determine the rate of land warming. The relative warming of land versus the ocean determines whether the monsoon trends downward or upward in a warming world.

Roxy Mathew Koll of Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Pune has led three studies that this writer was also part of. The first one reported the downward trend in the mean rainfall and showed that the ocean has been warming faster than land from 1950s onward and this has flattened the ocean-to-lad temperature increase, resulting in a weakening monsoon. This study did not focus on the causes for a slower land warming. Other researchers have argued that the increased air pollution has been blocking solar heating and slowing the warming of land. An IIT Bombay study led by Supantha Paul showed that increased deforestation can explain the reduction in rainfall due to reduced evapotranspiration independently of any change in the ocean-to-land temperature gradient.

The second study led by Koll focused on impact of the changes in Indian Ocean warming and monsoon circulation on marine primary production and fisheries. Near-surface warming in the ocean tends to inhibit mixing up of nutrients from below the surface by increasing vertical stratification and thus reduces primary production, which in turn, affects the entire marine food web including fisheries. The decrease in primary production over western Indian Ocean is about 20% for six decades since 1950 but has accelerated to over 30% since 1985. Monsoon changes, thus, involve vegetation change over land as well as in the ocean.

In the third study, we showed that there has been a threefold increase in widespread floods over a large swath of central India extending from Gujarat and Rajasthan to Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. The interesting fact here is that moisture for fueling such widespread floods is being supplied from the northern Arabian Sea which is also warming rapidly and monotonically. 

Just as the bad news seemed to be getting worse, a study from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) reported recently that the monsoon has, in fact, been recovering since 2002. The downward trend seems to have reversed due to a decrease in aerosols over India and return to faster land warming expected under global warming compared to the ocean. A second study by MIT researchers provides further evidence of the cessation of reduction in monsoon by showing that the increase in rainfall is seen as an increase in vegetation cover over the arid and semi-arid regions of northwest India. 

Monsoon recovery is obviously great news. However, many caveats must be offered. The first is that a decade does not make a trend. We need to watch cautiously for many more years to be certain that this is indeed a revival of the monsoon. Model projections for the future seem to indicate that the ocean warming will continue unabated. We are uncertain whether the reduction in aerosols and land warming are driving the monsoon recovery or whether reforestation and increased vegetation cover are responsible for it. India has been aggressive about reforestation to keep pace with its commitment to the Paris Agreement with tall claims being made about increase in forest cover. But these are much more recent than 2002 when the monsoon recovery is argued to have started. 

Some monsoon modelling studies, such as one by Sabeerali and Ajayamohan of NYU-Abu Dhabi, have projected shorter monsoon season due to the warming by 2100, mainly due to likely shifts in the onset and withdrawal. But such studies are based on models that do not capture historical monsoon features like decrease in monsoon since the 1950s and the recovery since 2002. They are also inconsistent with the ocean-atmosphere dynamics. Models also do not accurately simulate the aerosol loading and thus the solar dimming by aerosols. 

The most important caveat is that even if the total rainfall recovers, there is no indication that heatwaves, droughts, extreme events and widespread floods are about to go away. Loss of life, crops and property will continue to be significant challenges in coming years and decades. Reforestation must continue to not only reduce aerosols and facilitate the monsoon recovery but also to enhance soil moisture persistence which increases drought resilience and recycled precipitation in addition to reducing the overall impact of urbanization which exacerbates floods. 

The ocean warming and its impact on the monsoon and widespread floods are not entirely in our control but mitigative actions like reforestation certainly are. We must do everything within our means to hedge our bets against a return to a downward trend in the monsoon. (India Science Wire)

(The author is a Professor at the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland and a visiting faculty at IISER, Pune and IIT, Bombay.)

Everything You Should Know About Computer Based Test For Railway Recruitment Drive !

The India Saga Saga |

Ever since the government-service exams have gone online, the selection of students from Tier 2 and 3 cities has dropped down. It is not because of lack of knowledge of the candidates but due to the teething issues related to shift to computers. The efficiency of students fell from 65/100 to 35/100 when they shifted to digital mode, due to lack of exposure to computers. Many college graduates in these areas find it hard to operate a computer. The strategy to attempt exam changes as the mode shifts from offline to online. In an offline exam, all the questions are available at once, while in the online pattern you can see only one question at a time.

The application process for railway recruitment came to an end on March 31, 2018. Reports had earlier suggested that more than 2.5 crore candidates had applied for more than 89,000 jobs advertised by Indian Railways.

Now that the application process is over, candidates need to begin preparation for the selection process. The selection process for Group C level I will involve a Computer Based Test (CBT). Those who qualify the CBT will have to appear for a Physical Efficiency Test (PET). 

The selection process for Group C level II will involve two stages of Computer Based Test (CBT). In case of candidates who have opted for ALP post and qualify for the second stage, CBT will have to appear for a computer-based Aptitude Test (AT). 

CBT marks will be normalized for each exam. There will also be negative marking for each incorrect answer. 1/3rd of the marks allotted to each question will be deducted for an incorrect answer. 


First stage: Computer Based Test (CBT)

It will contain objective, multiple choice questions. There will be total 75 questions and the duration of the same will be 60 minutes. Questions will be framed from:

— Mathematics

— General Intelligence and Reasoning

— General Science

— General awareness of current affairs

Exam syllabus

Mathematics

Number system, BODMAS, decimals, fractions, LCM, HCF, ratio and proportion, percentages, mensuration, time and work; time and distance, simple and compound interest, profit and loss, algebra, geometry and trigonometry, elementary statistics, square root, age calculations, calendar and clock, Pipes and cistern etc.

General Intelligence and Reasoning

Analogies, alphabetical and number series, coding, and decoding, mathematical operations, relationships, syllogism, jumbling, Venn diagram, data interpretation and sufficiency, conclusions and decision making, similarities, and differences, analytical reasoning, classification, directions, statement – arguments and assumptions etc.

General Science

The focus should be on physics, chemistry and life sciences of class 10.

General Awareness

Current affairs in science and technology, sports, culture, personalities, economics, politics and other subjects of importance.

Second stage: Computer Based Test (CBT)

Part A:

Mathematics

It will contain 100 objective type questions. The duration of the same will be 90 minutes.

— General Intelligence and Reasoning

— Basic Science and Engineering

— General awareness of current affairs

Exam syllabus

Mathematics

Number system, BODMAS, decimals, fractions, LCM, HCF, ratio and proportion, percentages, mensuration, time and work; time and distance, simple and compound interest, profit and loss, algebra, geometry and trigonometry, elementary statistics, square root, age calculations, calendar and clock, pipes and cistern etc.

General Intelligence and Reasoning

Analogies, alphabetical and number series, coding, and decoding, mathematical operations, relationships, syllogism, jumbling, Venn diagram, data interpretation and sufficiency, conclusions and decision making, similarities, and differences, analytical reasoning, classification, directions, statement – arguments and assumptions etc.

Basic Science and Engineering

Engineering drawing (projections, views, drawing instruments, lines, geometric figures, symbolic representation), units, measurements, mass weight and density, work power and energy, speed and velocity, heat and temperature, basic electricity, levers and simple machines, occupational safety and health, environment education, IT literacy etc.

General Awareness

Current affairs in science and technology, sports, culture, personalities, economics, politics and any other subjects of importance.

Part B:

Subject – Relevant trade

There will be total 75 questions and the duration of the exam will be 60 minutes.

Qualifying mark: 35 percent (This is applicable to all candidates and no relaxation is permissible).

This part is qualifying in nature and shall have questions from the trade syllabus prescribed by Director General of Employment and Training (DGET).

Computer-based aptitude test

(Only for candidates who have opted for ALP)

The candidate needs to secure a minimum score of 42 marks in each of the test batteries to qualify. This is applicable to all candidates and no relaxation is permissible. The ALP merit list will be drawn only from the candidates qualifying in the aptitude test, with 70 percent weightage for the marks obtained in the part A of the second stage CBT and 30 percent weightage for the marks obtained in computer-based AT.

Tips and suggestions

— Attempt as many mock tests you can for the exam. Also, after you give each mock test, it is imperative to analyze your performance in order improve your scores. Remember, only taking mock tests aren’t enough, what you do between two mocks is what will decide your performance.

— As you know, GK and general science are topics that require a lot of memorization. To do this well, repetition is the key. Thus, covering these topics daily along with a test is a good preparation strategy. These sections are extremely important as they can mark the difference between a successful and a failed attempt. Hence, proper preparation here could be the key to clearing the exam.

— Work on your exam attempt strategy. This is one of the most important aspects of test-taking and mocks are the most effective tools to help you devise a winning exam attempt strategy.

(The author Ashutosh Kumar is the CEO and co-founder at Testbook.com, a leading online government exam preparation portal.)

A Privilege Health Card for Senior Citizens!

The India Saga Saga |

Mumbai: On the occasion of the 12th anniversary of Shree Sai Clinic, a multi-speciality hospital, Goregaon has unveiled a privilege health card for senior citizens to get benefits on diagnosis, pathology and surgical treatment.

More than 200 senior citizens have been screened freely for 12 parameters includes  HB, CBC, ESR, bl group, Blood Sugar fasting, Se, Cholesterol, Sgot, SGPT, Se Creatinine, Urine routine, ECG consultation. It also included 10 minute talk on dental care and joint pain by specialist.

Elderly shall be entitled to various benefits on health check ups for life time. Dr. Sunil Chavan, Managing Director & Orthopaedic Surgeon, Shree Sai Clinic says, “Aging can bring about various health issues, it’s important to understand the challenges faced by people as they are growing older and older. Senior citizens usually suffer from various Orthopaedic ailments such as arthritis, joint pains, weak bones. Also, Heart disease, stroke, cancer, diabetes, Bp, Obesity, Alzheimer is among the most common health ailments which they face. Hence we thought of introducing a health card and enrolled member will get benefits on it.

Rising Popularity of Cryptocurrency Cannot be Overlooked : Dr. Amit Lakhanpal

The India Saga Saga |

UAE : In a market that has been fraught with uncertainties, globally, the rising popularity of cryptocurrency cannot be overlooked. For the UAE itself, the central banks and regulators have mulled various measures to ensure the systems are robust and risk-appropriate, so as to be able to better regulate these currencies which have historically shown intense volatility. Today, the UAE is even considering establishing virtual currency exchanges given the immense popularity among financial market participants.

But this was not easy for the UAE. To begin with, concerns over issues off cryptocurrencies being used or rather misused for illegal activities such as money-laundering or even funding terrorist organisations have been on the minds of regulators and policy-makers in the region. This was one of the major hurdles for Amit Lakhanpal, the man who brought cryptocurrencies to the UAE.

Beginning as a real estate entrepreneur, the 33-year old Computer Science Masters professional from Cambridge University cashed in on his natural pioneering spirit and thirst for bringing disruptive technologies to hitherto unexplored regions. Backed by his solid educational qualifications, which include a diploma in asset and wealth management Blockchain technology and Digital Smart Contract, Dr Lakhanpal launched Money Trade Coin – a group which houses a cryptocurrency exchange, the world’s largest online shopping mall, wallet services as well as a cryptocurrency academy. This he brought to the UAE, through a partnership with Dubai based firm Bitcoin Global FZE, UAE with the aim of furthering global financial integration through the art of better transactions. UK Emirati Mrs Salma Al Kitebe – a close aide to the royal family in the UAE is also a partner in intellectual property rights for this cryptocurrency.

Apart from the huge potential that it offered, it was Dr Lakhanpal’s futuristic views and intense commitment to ensuring adequate security for transactions conducted on the platform that led to the beginning of the success story for his group in the UAE. “We have founded the group on principles of providing easy, value added and secure solutions to customers and that has been a major driver for our growth”, says Dr Lakhanpal.

His acute business sense is not all that he has brought to the world – this young visionary has also authored a book titled “The World of Crypto Currency”, which educates the general public about the technology and its disruptive powers. Thus, he has made disruptive, new-age technological solutions easily understandable and accessible for the common man. His cryptocurrency academy provides training and educates both newbies and professionals about this technology and its uses, thus bridging gaps and promoting transparent, collaborative growth and development for the market.

Such is the persona of this Indian national, that his innovative initiatives have led him to be awarded with the prestigious Mahatma Gandhi Gaurav Samman for excellence in promoting global integration and economic development.

Today, some banks in the UAE have even banned online cryptocurrency trading, to protect customers from falling prey to frauds resulting from insecure systems associated with many such currencies. There is ample room for embezzlement of money used to trade in such virtual currency, if given the leeway. Dr Lakhanpal himself advises “While the market opportunity is huge, trading of such currencies is not a simple game, instead requires one to clearly understand and assess their risk appetite before venturing into it for higher returns. We conduct our business with focus on complete transparency and adding value for our customers.” 

Good News For Agriculture Sector, IMD Forecasts Normal Monsoon

The India Saga Saga |

New Delhi : India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday forecast that the monsoon this year will be normal, with rainfall of 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA) with an error of plus or five per cent. 

If the forecast comes true, it will augur well for the country’s economy, as it will be the third successive normal monsoon year. The country had recorded a rainfall of 97 per cent in 2016 and 98 per cent last year during the season, which runs from June to September. 

The long period average for the season is calculated on the basis of the mean rainfall during the four-month monsoon season over a 50 year period from 1951-2010. It comes to an average of 89 cm for the country as a whole. 

Announcing the forecast, IMD Director General, K.J. Ramesh, said the forecast was based on both statistical ensemble forecasting system and a dynamic global climate forecasting system. The dynamic model has forecast a rainfall of 99 per cent plus or minus a model error of five per cent, while the statistical model forecast is 97 per cent plus or minus model error of five percent. 

IMD would come out with an update in early June. At that point of time, apart from an updated forecast for the country as a whole and the season in its entirety, the Department would issue separate forecasts for rainfall for the months of July and August for the country as a whole and season-wide rainfall for the four distinct geographical areas – north-west India, south peninsula, north-east India and Central India. 

Dr Ramesh also announced category-wise forecast in terms of probabilities for normal (96% to 104 %), above normal (104% to 110%), excess (more than 110%), below normal (90% to 96%) and deficient (less than 90%) rainfall. There was a probability of 42 per cent for a normal rainfall, followed by 12 per cent for above normal, 30 per cent for below normal, two percent for excess and 14 per cent for deficient rainfall. “There is thus maximum probability of normal rainfall and low probability for deficient rainfall”.  

Referring to various global and regional factors that influence Indian monsoon, he said, the El Nino-La Nina factor is expected to be normal this year. A moderate La Nina condition had developed in the equatorial Pacific during last year. It, however, started weakening in the early parts of this year and has currently turned into a weak La Nina condition. The latest forecasts from Indian and global models indicate that in it will go away before the beginning of the season. 

As regards Indian Ocean Dipole phenomenon, which is the other important factor, he said, at present neutral IOD conditions are prevailing and recent forecasts indicate that a weak negative IOD conditions may develop during the middle of the monsoon season and this has been factored into the overall forecast. IMD would continuously monitor the situation”, he added. (India Science Wire)