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The death of Chairman of the Nationalist Socialist Council of Nagalim, Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM) Isak Chishi Swu, who was President of the organisation’s government of the People’s Republic of Nagaland (GPRN), on June 28 in the national capital has thrown up inevitable uncertainties about the ongoing peace negotiations with the Union government since 1997. 

The question is will it affect the peace process adversely? At the same time there are ample indications from both sides that the talks should continue and concluded successfully. However, the succession process can affect the group’s support base. Swu was 87 and had been ailing for more than a year and his condition was steadily deteriorating. 

It was to fulfil Swu’s wish that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government signed a framework agreement on August 3 last year with the NSCN-IM’s other tall leader Thuingaleng Muivah. The agreement was signed in the presence of PM Modi, who described it as historic, and Home Minister Rajnath Singh at the former’s official residence.  

However, the critical “”Framework Agreement”” has not been taken forward and finalised leading to settlement of political issues so far which means Swu’s wish has only been fulfilled partially. 

When Swu died he was one of the few veterans left that began the Naga struggle under the banner of the Naga National Council (NNC) under the charismatic leadership of A Z Phizo in the 1950s. 

Swu along with Muivah and S S Khaplang of the undivided NSCN in 1980 rejected the Shillong Accord of 1975. The NNC agreed to lay down arms to begin the negotiations for peaceful reconciliation. Khaplang was the Naga from Myanmar who split the NSCN into two factions in 1988. One was led by Swu and Muivah and the other by Khaplang, the NSCN (K). 

Muivah was indeed the political and strategic brain in the NSCN (IM) with Swu providing the moral support. In the aftermath of the Dalai Lama’s arrival in this country and the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the Chinese welcomed the Nagas and other Northeast rebels with open arms. Muivah had led the first batch of Naga fighters to Yunnan in 1966-67. Swu had followed suit. 

What is important is that a lot will depend on who replaces Swu as the NSCN (IM) chairman. The name doing the rounds is that of vice president Khole Konyak who in 2011 formed the NSCN (Unification) and then last year changed his mind and joined the NSCN (IM). 

As is only to be expected the negotiators from New Delhi want to steer clear of the Naga rebel factions from Myanmar and reach an understanding with the NSCN (IM). This is particularly so because the NSCN (IM) also wants all other factions kept out of the peace agreement. Even as the Prime Minister has described the Naga issue as a legacy of the British, the NSCN (IM) is one of the largest insurgent outfits in the country’s Northeast. 

The mourning period for Swu is to last till July 4. He will be interred in his home village of Chishilimi in Nagaland which is the home district of Swu’s Sema tribe. Besides Naga’s homeland in Myanmar, people throughout Nagalim (Greater Nagaland) in much of Manipur as well areas in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam there has been a spontaneous outpouring of grief following Swu’s death. 

At the memorial service for Swu his family made a highly significant gesture. One of his sons said now that his father was no more, they looked up to Muivah as a father figure and guidance. Importantly, all Naga factions including the NSCN led by Khaplang have firmly backed Naga nationalism for a future of unity and peace for the Nagas. 

A lot of work remains to be done with Muivah in the vanguard. He is 82 years old. There are no short cuts and there will have to be some give and take. Nevertheless, lets wait and see how this pans out.

(T R Ramachandran is a senior journalist and commentator. The views are personal.)”

“The green shoots of recovery in the economy now really seem to be on the horizon. Even though India’s growth rate is considered very high by global standards – 7.4 per cent – the fact is, that many sectors are still growing at a glacially slow pace. For instance, manufacturing which has been traditionally a labour intensivesegment has been moving at a minuscule rate despite the overall growth being so high. Similarly, exports have been plummeting downwards for the last 17 months.There are some indications, however, that this phase may finally be over and output may be picking up again. And these indicators are several sets of new data.These include the Nikkei India Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), a Reserve Bank of India study on corporate performance and even the mixed signals from thelatest car sales index. The first of course is the PMI which shows that manufacturing rose to a three month high in June on the back of new domestic and export orders. It came to 51.7 in June from 50.7 in May. The 50 point mark separates contraction from expansion. This is the sixth month in a row that it is above the 50 point mark. In December last year, it had fallen below 50 but since then it has consistently been higher, indicating that there is sustained expansion in the area of manufacturing.The author of the report says the domestic market continues to be the main driver of growth as the Indian economic upturn provides a steady stream of new business. New foreign orders also rose in June but lackluster global demand remains a problem for Indian manufacturers, it was stated. Significantly, on the export side, new orders increased in June, offsetting the decline seen in May, the first in 32 months.The second set of data that is providing some hope for industrial revival is an RBI study on corporate performance. It goes to the extent of saying that privatecorporate sector has “signaled a turnaround”and recorded positive sales in the fourth quarter of 2015-16 (January to March). This is after a decline for four successive quarters earlier. It says operating profit growth continued to improve over all sectors during this period as a result of higher sales growth and dip in rawmaterial prices. Aggregate sales rose by 2.3 per cent after having contracted in the previous four quarters. Sales improved for the manufacturing and IT sectors but moderated for other non- IT services. Net profit grew by 16.4 per cent as against 15.9 per cent in the previous quarter.And finally even the car sales index is good news even though it appears to show a decline in sales in June. This dip is actually due to problems in the productiondelays at Maruti, and not a fall in real demand.Virtually all other manufacturers recorded a rise in sales except for Honda which has been hit by the shift to petrolvariant models. Maruti had to slow down output due to a fire in its component supplier, Subros. It has not reduced production owing to a fall in demand for itsvehicles which still have a buoyant response in the market. All other market players including Hyundai, Mahindra, Toyota and Tatas recorded a significantincrease in output during the month.POSITIVE OUTLOOKBesides, the outlook is positive due to hopes of a bountiful monsoon and the implementation of the seventh Pay Commission for government employees. The question is, are these indicators really green shoots of growth or will they just wither away in the months to come. The fact is, that with the prospect of widespread rainfall during this monsoon, it looks as if demand is set to rise especially in rural areas. This in turn will bring about a more sustained revival in the manufacturing sector which is truly the driver of the economy even though services now accounts for the biggest chunk of GDP. Even so, one will have to wait and watch for another month to be really sure that the recovery is on track.(Sushma Ramachandran is a senior journalist and distinguished commentator specialising in economic affairs and business.)“

“India is becoming one of the fastest growing markets for Australian tourism and visitors. The Australian High Commission in New Delhi has granted a record 150,000 Visitor visas during the 2015-16 program year.Australia’s High Commissioner to India, Harinder Sidhu, said, “It is a landmark achievement. This is the first time ever that we have reached the 150,000-mark in visitor visa approvals in India for a year.”“One hundred fifty thousand visitor visas is a sign of the growth of the relations between our two countries. I welcome it as a positive milestone. The achievement underlines the fast expanding links between Australia and India.” Ã¢Â€ÂœMore and more Indians are travelling to Australia for business, tourism and to study in our universities, as well as visit family,” Ms Sidhu said. At a function celebrating the 150 000th visa, the High Commissioner congratulated the visa recipient Mrinal Dutt and his wife, Kanika. Ms Sidhu presented a prize to them.  They will get to climb the iconic Sydney Harbour Bridge and have received a boomerang to remind them of their Australian adventures.There were a record 233,000 arrivals from India during 2015, a growth of 19%, which represents the highest growth in the past seven years. India’s ranking improved from 11th to 8th largest inbound tourists destination for Australia.By 2020, Indian tourist arrivals are expected to be around 300,000. Tourism Australia expects India to feature in the top five inbound markets for Australia by 2025.”

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The World Health Organization (WHO), governments, financial institutions, development partners, and health agencies from across the world have committed to accelerate strengthening and implementation of capacities required to cope with disease outbreaks and other health emergencies. A significant threat to global health security is the number of national health systems that are weak, fragmented and under-funded. Only about one third of countries in the world have the ability to assess, detect and respond to public health emergencies. Ebola, Zika, yellow fever and other recent outbreaks have exposed these weaknesses at national, regional and international levels.

Renewed commitment to health system strengthening in-line with the International Health Regulations (2005) is needed, especially in vulnerable countries. The true power of health systems is their ability to deliver timely, quality health services to those in need in a comprehensive way and on an adequate scale. These systems are especially important during emergencies, when access to quality essential health services can be severely compromised, participants at a three day meeting  on ‘Advancing Global Health Security: From Commitments to Actions’, . The meeting brought together 250 participants from 52 countries representing 28 different organizations.

The meeting highlighted the critical importance of flexible preparedness planning, community strengthening and engagement, information sharing, strengthening of intersectoral collaboration of national and international partnerships, and the critical role that governments and technical partners play in financing and implementing them. Investing in these systems requires strong ownership and supportive leadership at the highest levels.
The meeting in Bali is the second high-level WHO meeting to advance global health security. The first meeting took place in Cape Town, South Africa in July 2015. Since then, considerable preparedness strengthening activities have taken place and been implemented, especially in vulnerable countries.“Fortifying health security in today’s world must be a key priority of governments, multilateral agencies, development banks, and non-government organizations the world over. What matters most is maintaining the momentum and turning that into real, tangible results,” Dr Poonam Khetrapal Singh, Regional Director, WHO South-East Asia Region said at the end of the meeting. Speaking at the opening of the event, Dr Matshidiso Moeti, WHO Regional Director for Africa, said “the bedrock of outbreak and emergency preparedness and response is a functioning, resilient national health system – with the financing, human resources, infrastructure, information and supply management systems capable of detecting and responding to public health events.

A significant advancement since the Cape Town meeting is the WHO joint external evaluation (JEE) process, which is one of four components of the new WHO IHR Monitoring and Evaluation Framework. The WHO JEE process helps to identify strengths and weaknesses in national health systems and in other sectors which play a key role in health emergency preparedness and response.The results of the WHO JEE is shared publicly and will support the country and its partners in developing a national action plan linked to the national budget and planning cycles, anchored in the health system and supporting its implementation in the country.The JEE process reflects the underlying principles of the strategic framework for emergency preparedness that was fine-tuned at the Bali meeting,  including  transparency, accountability, multisectorality, partnership, sustainability, and alignment. Key to the Bali framework is the building of robust health systems in order to achieve universal health coverage (UHC) by methods that are efficient, country-focused, transparent and accountable, and strengthening and maintaining the effectiveness of global health security as a global public good.WHO has also created an open-access web platform called the Strategic Partnership Portal (SPP) to help identify country needs, gaps and partner activities to ensure resources are used more efficiently, without duplication. Training on how to use the SPP, mandated by WHO Member States and supported by health partners, has been rolled out in several high-risk countries in Africa, with planned expansion to other WHO Regions in 2016.”

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A latest study has estimated that at least 67 million children are infected by Mycobacterium tuberculosis with 850,000 developing active disease. Of these children, two million were estimated to be infected with multi drug-resistant (MDR)-tuberculosis strains, leading to 25,000 cases of MDR-TB disease requiring expensive and toxic treatment, according to  a new study by The Lancet Infectious Diseases.

TB in children is increasingly being recognised as a significant public health problem, and an important element of the total global burden of the disease. Improved estimates of the rates of drug resistance in children are important because paediatric tuberculosis can be more difficult to diagnose, more challenging to test for drug sensitivity, and more likely to cause extra-pulmonary infection.

Africa and South East Asia have the highest numbers of children with TB, but the WHO Eastern Mediterranean region, Europe and Western Pacific region also contribute substantially to the burden of drug-resistant tuberculosis because of their much higher proportions of resistance, the study says. Far more drug-resistant tuberculosis occurs in children than is diagnosed, and there is a large pool of drug-resistant infection. This finding has implications for approaches to empirical treatment and preventive therapy in some regions of the world.

After infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, children are at an increased risk of progression to tuberculosis disease; a condition that can be challenging to diagnose. New estimation approaches for children have highlighted the gap between incidence and notifications of M tuberculosis, and suggest there are more cases of isoniazid-resistant and multidrug-resistant (MDR) disease than are identified. No work has yet quantified the burden of drug-resistant infection, or accounted for other types of drug resistance or sampling uncertainty.

The researchers combined a mathematical model of tuberculosis in children with an analysis of drug-resistance patterns to produce country-level, regional, and global estimates of drug-resistant infection and disease. They then determined drug resistance using data from the Global Project on Antituberculosis Drug Resistance Surveillance at WHO, from surveys and surveillance reported between 1988 and 2014 and combined 1000 sampled proportions for each country to estimate the proportions of tuberculosis cases at a country level with isoniazid monoresistance, rifampicin monoresistance, multidrug resistance (MDR), fluoroquinolone-resistant multidrug resistance, second-line injectable-resistant multidrug resistance, and extensive multidrug resistance with resistance to both a fluoroquinolone and a second-line injectable (XDR).

The innovative modelling and statistical analysis was  carried out by researchers from the University of Sheffield, Imperial College London, and the World Health Organisation. Peter Dodd, an infectious disease epidemiologist from the University’s School of Health and Related Research (ScHARR), said: “Our report shows far more drug-resistant TB occurs in children than is diagnosed, and there is a large pool of drug-resistant infection. If they are not identified as having drug-resistant TB, children are unlikely to receive appropriate and effective treatment.

“After infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis, young children are at particularly high risk of progressing to tuberculosis disease. “They are also more likely to develop more severe forms of disease such as TB meningitis and disseminated TB.”
The report, published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases, concludes that the identified cases of drug-resistant TB in children are the tip of the iceberg, and there is a large unmet need for diagnosis, drug-susceptibility testing, and appropriate treatment.”

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Rare as it may seem Britain is at the crossroads. It was like a political Tsunami that stunned the United Kingdom when the referendum favoured a clean break with the 28-member European Union. It was bewildering as this was not the result a wide cross section of the electorate desired but now had to confront it headlong. There is widespread uncertainty about what is going to happen next in the short to medium term. 

Ireland wants to overturn the result. There was anger at the European Union headquarters wanting the UK to pack bags and quit as early as possible rather than dragging its feet. They wanted to begin the process as early as last Tuesday, June 28, even though the charter of the EU stipulates the process of a clean break with the EU takes at least two years to materialise. 

Expectedly, British Prime Minister David Cameron immediately put in his papers as it was no longer possible for him to take the country forward. His replacement after six years in office is expected to take place as early as September-October. 

Some other smaller European countries are also contemplating getting out of the EU. In all this confusion, nearly three million signed a fresh memorandum seeking another referendum on the subject which was rejected by Cameron. 

The markets in this country have shrugged off the impact of Brexit results. Though the market fell sharply during intra day trading last Friday, June 24, both  have since recovered from those lows as the Rupee cumulatively shed only 70 paise. This reflects a vastly improved domestic macro economic stability. 

What happens outside is beyond any country’s control. Policy makers must stick to domestic fiscal prudence. Reminiscent of Asia in 1947, politicians in Europe in 2016 not in control of things are being assailed by forces they have unleashed and are unable to control. What is staring people in the face is that they do not know what the future holds. Anger between the two camps of “”leave and stay”” is at boiling point. 

England will need a new scapegoat. A racial element has been noticed in the voting like “”Britain for Brits”” which holds dangerous portends. Despite murmurs Scotland and Ireland have their own agendas and voted to stay in the EU because thats the logical step for freedom. However, the world at large might not be able to fully insulate itself from the aftermath of June 23 shocker even if the margin of victory was barely four per cent.

The EU finds itself in troubled waters  after decades of European integration. Cameron’s decision to go in for a referendum may turn out to be an  electoral blunder though he himself voted to remain in the EU. 

Be that as it may the outgoing Prime Minister has become his own victim. Even though Indian companies which have seen England as a springboard to Europe are somewhat circumspect at this juncture.  

In a highly integrated world with interdependent economic security systems in place, especially in Europe, walking out of EU would entail costs for both the leavers and the 27 countries that remain behind after UK’s departure. As the fifth largest economy in the world with a seat in the Security Council, the UK wields much influence, though Germany being the strongest was the undoubted power in the EU. 

The UK has to negotiate its exit under Article 50 of the Lisbon treaty. The Pound suffered its biggest one day fall in history against the Dollar to hit levels last seen three decades back in 1985. The “”out”” is being widely seen to be directed at the British voters fear of the immigrants. The voices of pluralism and tolerance have suffered a setback. It will give a definite fillip to right wing political leaders and outfits in Europe and beyond. 

For its part the EU will emerge economically and politically weakened with the departure of its most free market proponent and a member wielding the UNSC veto. In one go the block will lose around a sixth of its total economic output. Britain would largely have been better off staying in the EU. Its heft is limited and diminishing. As the largest single market in the world, it had a lot more clout in trade negotiations. There are apprehensions of Britain becoming irrelevant as a small economy with no big competitive advantage. 

It is unclear at this stage what sort of relationship Britain will seek to negotiate with the EU once it has left. However, the young generation wants to remain with the EU but it was not to be. Therefore, it is not entirely inconceivable for the UK to become part of the European Union once again. 

(T R Ramachandran is a senior journalist and commentator. The Views expressed are personal.)”

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The Union Cabinet has approved the implementation of the recommendations of 7th Central Pay Commission (CPC) on pay and pension benefits.   It will come into effect from January 1, 2016.

The Cabinet also decided that arrears of pay and pensionary benefits will be paid during the current financial year (2016-17) itself. Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the BJP-led NDA government had approved the Seventh Pay Commission’s recommendations in a record time of six months as against the previous governments who had taken 19 and 32 months to implement the recommendations of the Fifth and Sixth Pay Commissions. He expressed the hope that with the implementation of  the pay panel’s recommendations there  would be more money supply in the economy that would spur the demand and growth. At the same time, he said, employees would also be attracted to opt for additional savings. 

With this decision, the minimum pay has been increased from Rs.  7000 to 18000 p.m.  Starting salary of a newly recruited employee at lowest level will now be Rs.  18000 whereas for a freshly recruited Class I officer, it will be Rs.  56100.  This reflects a compression ratio of 1:3.12 signifying that pay of a Class I officer on direct recruitment will be three times the pay of an entrant at lowest level.

The recommendations will benefit over 1 crore employees. This includes over 47 lakh central government employees and 53 lakh pensioners, of which 14 lakh employees and 18 lakh pensioners are from the defence forces.

The present system of Pay Bands and Grade Pay has been dispensed with and a new Pay Matrix as recommended by the Commission has been approved. The status of the employee, hitherto determined by grade pay, will now be determined by the level in the Pay Matrix. Separate Pay Matrices have been drawn up for Civilians, Defence Personnel and for Military Nursing Service.

All existing levels have been subsumed in the new structure; no new levels have been introduced nor has any level been dispensed with. Index of Rationalisation has been approved for arriving at minimum pay in each Level of the Pay Matrix depending upon the increasing role, responsibility and accountability at each step in the hierarchy.

Rate of increment has been retained at 3 %. This will benefit the employees in future on account of higher basic pay as the annual increments that they earn in future will be 2.57 times than at present.

The Cabinet approved further improvements in the Defence Pay Matrix by enhancing Index of Rationalisation for Level 13A (Brigadier) and providing for additional stages in Level 12A (Lieutenant Colonel), 13 (Colonel) and 13A (Brigadier) in order to bring parity with Combined Armed Police Forces (CAPF) counterparts at the maximum of the respective Levels.

Some other decisions impacting the employees including Defence & Combined Armed Police Forces (CAPF) personnel include enhancement of gratuity ceiling from Rs.  10 to 20 lakh. The ceiling on gratuity will increase by 25 % whenever DA rises by 50 %. A common regime for payment of Ex-gratia lump sum compensation for civil and defence forces personnel will be payable to next of kin with the existing rates enhanced from Rs. 10-20 lakh to 25-45 lakh for different categories.

Rates of Military Service Pay has been revised from Rs.  1000, 2000, 4200 & 6000 to 3600, 5200, 10800 & 15500 respectively for various categories of Defence Forces.

Hospital Leave, Special Disability Leave and Sick Leave have been subsumed into a composite new Leave named ‘Work Related Illness and Injury Leave’ (WRIIL). Full pay and allowances will be granted to all employees during the entire period of hospitalization on account of WRIIL.

The Cabinet also approved the recommendation of the Commission to enhance the ceiling of House Building Advance from Rs.  7.50 lakh to 25 lakh. In order to ensure that no hardship is caused to employees, four interest free advances namely Advances for Medical Treatment, TA on tour/transfer, TA for family of deceased employees and LTC have been retained. All other interest free advances have been abolished.

    The Cabinet also decided to constitute two separate Committees (i) to suggest measures for      streamlining the implementation of National Pension System (NPS) and (ii) to look into anomalies likely to arise out of implementation of the Commission’s Report.

As estimated by the 7th CPC, the additional financial impact on account of implementation of all its recommendations in 2016-17 will be Rs. 1,02,100 crore. There will be an additional implication of Rs. 12,133 crore on account of payments of arrears of pay and pension for two months of 2015-16.”

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Pakistan trained terrorists of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), equipped with AK-47 rifles, attacked the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) convoy on June 25 at Pampore. In this most deadly attack on security forces in recent years, eight CRPF officials were martyred while more than 25 were injured out of them few were grievously wounded.The two heavily armed L-e- T terrorists resorted to indiscriminate firing on CRPF vehicle which was not bullet proof. As most of the CRPF buses are not bullet proof the terrorists take advantage of this and the security force personnel become an easy target. The CRPF personnel were quick to respond and killed both the terrorists within minutes. Intelligence sources said the terrorists were helped by support agents of Pakistan’s Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) who are active in the Valley.In the recent past terrorist attacks in the Valley have gone up. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has remarked that it is the “frustration” as more than 25 terrorists were killed by security forces in last one month in Jammu and Kashmir. In fact it is not only the frustration of terrorists but it is also the disillusionment of their Pak-based handlers who are realizing that the terrorism in the Valley is dwindling very fast and due to the advent of tourist season, the people of J&K are not resorting to demonstrations against security forces on fabricated issues.Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti while criticizing terrorism emphasised that terrorism is hurting the tourism which is very important for the economic revival of the state.Terrorists are losing ground in the Valley and Pakistani army is worried that in international arena the importance, influence and prestige of India has enhanced while Pakistan is being branded as a nation sponsoring terrorism.India’s joining of Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) is also a big achievement. The terrorists are also aware that  Amarnath Yatra would commencefrom July 2 and would continue till August 18 and at that time stringent security arrangement may not be easy to penetrate and launch terror strikes.On June 28, security forces killed two terrorists of Hizbul Mujahideen at Kupwara district in a gun battle which is fifth encounter with terrorists in last onemonth.In the past, Pakistan has allowed use of its territory to numerous terrorist groups who have launched terror attacks  in J&K. These include Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e- Mohammed, Harkat-ul- Jihad al-Islami, Harkat-ul- Mujahideen, Hizbul Mujahideen, Al-Badr. These outfits worked to the Pak design of carrying alow intensity war in the border state. There is relative peace in Afghanistan, hence, Pak-based terror groups, aided by the ISI, have increased terrorist activity in J&K and the plan is to push in more terrorists in India though the Indian security forces have foiled numerous infiltration attempts.Many of the infiltrators are from Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). Inhabitants of J&K are also being recruited, intelligence sources say. The training in terror camps in POK is given in the use of small arms as well as assembly of crude bombs and Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).The terrorists are using social media vigorously for the new recruitment as well as for spreading disinformation campaign against security forces. The Sufi tradition which was so special and characteristic of Kashmir is dying and Wahabis and Salafis are gaining strength which is a dangerous trend. The administration should encourage development of Sufi culture in J&K so that terrorists are considered as criminals and there is no demonstration when terrorists are killed in encounters.The political parties as well as government machinery must sort out legitimate grievances of people of J&K, they should also be told about the pitiablecondition of residents of POK where the development is negligible in comparison to J&K.The government must fulfill all the promises made to the surrendered terrorists and they should be merged in the mainstream. Security agencies should also keep a watch on their activities so that they do not return to terrorism.(J.K. Verma is a Delhi-based security analyst. The views are personal.)”

The wholly unexpected turn to the British referendum on leaving the European Union has left the entire world shell shocked. Global markets have crashed and then recovered, the pound sterling has fallen to its lowest for the last 30 years and safe haven assets like gold have become more costly, reflecting spurt in demand.
The tremors from the decision of the UK from the EU are not necessarily related to the actual economic impact on countries as a result of this divorce. It is more a psychological reaction to a move that could lead to the ultimate destruction of an idea that seemed indestructible till now.The idea of a united Europe. An idea thathad brought hope to millions of people weary of battles after two successive world wars. The hope that economic unity would bring lasting peace has been theunderlying philosophy of the European union. And it has been held up as a model for other regions like South Asia. The centuries old bitterness between France andGermany having metamorphosed into a highly successful economic union is always cited as an example to show that India and Pakistan too can overcome thepast and move forward as economic partners in the future.The vision has been destroyed by the referendum gracelessly described as Brexit. No doubt this is going to lead to more complications for the U.K. as Scotland nowconsiders the possibility of independence so it can opt to stay within the E.U. Not to mention that credit rating agencies are lowering the outlook for a country thathas normally been rated very highly as an investment destination. Be that as may, the repercussions are also going to be felt around the world. As for India, it isimportant to look at the implications simply because there is an inextricable link between the two countries owing to the colonial past. It is this that prompted hugenumbers to emigrate to the UK in search of a better life. This has now become a large and thriving diaspora in a country which has even dropped fish and chips tomake chicken tikka masala a national dish. The exchange has been two way with nearly all major British companies and banks having been established here beforeindependence and well before the reforms of 1991 lured the rest of the world.The economic relationship has deepened over the years with Indian companies like Tatas taking over Corus, Jaguar Land Rover and Tetley Tea. The UK is the thirdlargest investor in India but India is also the third largest investor in that country. The level of Indian investment in the UK is as much as in the entire EU. Thereason is clear, the comfort level of working in the same language and a relatively similar legal and financial system. Given this ease of comfort of working in the UKalong with the presence of the Indian diaspora, it is not likely that the pattern of investments will undergo any major change. The UK may have been described as the gateway to Europe but Indian companies are not going to hastily shift headquarters to another capital despite the divorce with the EU. There may be some travel restrictions unlike in the past but this is a minor hurdle facing Indian companies who are used to operating from London.In fact, it will become easier for some Indian professionals to work in the UK now. In the past, the stringent EU regulations did not allow entry of specialized workersto enter unless their incomes were above a specified level. This has impacted skilled workers like chefs and nurses, who have in the past come in large numberfrom India.It is in the information technology sector that there should be some concern over the prospect of Brexit. The UK is the second largest market for India’s IT exportsand the separation from the EU could mean lower demand for software exports. Besides, the mobility of IT professionals from the UK to Europe could becomemore expensive and cumbersome with travel regulations coming into place. On the trade side, there may actually be some jubilation in the Commerce Ministrythat it will be possible to go ahead with a separate free trade pact with the UK. The proposed EU-India FTA has been hanging fire since 2007 largely due tointransigence on many areas by the EU bureaucracy. While India is willing to make concessions on automobiles and liquor tariffs, the EU is not prepared tomove forward on issues relating to movement of professionals which is critical for India. In case a separate FTA is now concluded with the UK, these issues willprobably be resolved much more easily. On the negative side, this will mean that the entire EU-India FTA will have to be reworked, leading to even more delay infinalizing the pact.In sum, there is not going to be a great deal of change in the Indo-British economic relationship owing to Brexit. The impact will be far more positive than negative.At the same time, the tremors around the world will affect India in an indirect way. The fluctuation in the rupee being seen now should subside in a while but thedecline of the pound sterling will surely affect IT exports unless it is contained in the medium term. In addition, if London loses its cachet as the financial capital ofEurope, it is bound to affect all companies located in this iconic city. The exit of the UK from the European Union may not affect India significantly or even impactit in a good way, but in the ultimate analysis it cannot be positive for the global economy. The economic integration of Europe makes eminent sense. It has madelife easier for most of those who live in the region. The very fact that the referendum has been by so narrow a margin and that analyses are showing that younger people prefer to be part of the EU, shows only too clearly that the European economic union with the UK is the way of the future. It is not inconceivable that this new generation may once again turn the tables after a while and become part of a united Europe once again.(This Edit page article appeared in The Tribune on June 28, 2016.)”

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While significant progress has been made in saving children’s lives, getting children into school and lifting people out of poverty, 69 million under the age of five will die from mostly preventable causes, 167 million children will live in poverty, and 750 million women will have been married as children by 2030 – the timeline set to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals—unless there is focus on the plight of the most disadvantaged children, according to a latest UNICEF report. The State of the World’s Children, UNICEF’s annual flagship report, paints a stark picture of what is in store for the world’s poorest children if governments, donors, businesses and international organizations do not accelerate efforts to address their needs.

The report notes that global under-five mortality rates have been more than halved since 1990, boys and girls attend primary school in equal numbers in 129 countries, and the number of people living in extreme poverty worldwide is almost half of what it was in the 1990s but this progress has been neither even nor fair, the report says. The poorest children are twice as likely to die before their fifth birthday and to be chronically malnourished than the richest. Across much of South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, children born to mothers with no education are almost three times more likely to die before they are five than those born to mothers with a secondary education. And girls from the poorest households are twice as likely to marry as children than girls from the wealthiest households.

Although education plays a unique role in levelling the playing field for children, the number of children who do not attend school has increased since 2011, and a significant proportion of those who do go to school are not learning. Globally, about 124 million children today do not go to primary and lower-secondary school, and almost 2 in 5 who do finish primary school have not learned how to read, write or do simple arithmetic. “Denying hundreds of millions of children a fair chance in life does more than threaten their futures – by fuelling inter-generational cycles of disadvantage, it imperils the future of their societies,” said UNICEF Executive Director Anthony Lake. Ã¢Â€ÂœWe have a choice: Invest in these children now or allow our world to become still more unequal and divided.”

India has much to celebrate in the area of education, particularly in ensuring children’s access to school, through the Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan and implementation of the Right to Education Act. This is reflected in the near-universal enrolment in primary education and the steady decrease in numbers of out-of-school children. The number of out-of-school children between 6 to 13 years has declinedfrom approximately 8 million in 2009 to 6 million in 2014. Yet, challenges still remain.In India, out of 74 million children between 3-6 years, about 20 million were not attending any preschool education in 2014, and it is the children from the poorest families and marginalised communities who are often left behind.

India is also one of the five countries where the highest number of children under-5 die due to preventable causes. The other countries are Nigeria, Pakistan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Ethiopia. In 2015, about 1.26 million children below the age of 5 years died of which 57 % were caused due to premature deaths and neonatal infection. Pneumonia and diarrhea are the two major causes of death after one month.   On an average, each additional year of education a child receives increases his or her adult earnings by about 10 per cent. For each additional year of schooling completed by young adults in a country results in a decline of that country’s poverty rates fall by 9 per cent.

Inequity is neither inevitable, nor insurmountable, the report argues. Better data on the most vulnerable children, integrated solutions to the challenges children face, innovative ways to address old problems, more equitable investment and increased involvement by communities – all these measures can help level the playing field for children.”