The number of children dying under five has fallen dramatically from 12.6 million in 1990 to 5.4 million in 2017. The number of deaths in older children aged between 5 to 14 years dropped from 1.7 million to under a million in the same period.

An estimated 6.3 million children under 15 years of age died in 2017, or 1 every 5 seconds, mostly of preventable causes, according to released by UNICEF, the World Health Organization (WHO), the United Nations Population Division and the World Bank Group.
 
The vast majority of these deaths – 5.4 million – occur in the first five years of life, with newborns accounting for around half of the deaths.

“Without urgent action, 56 million children under five will die from now until 2030 – half of them newborns,” said Laurence Chandy, UNICEF Director of Data, Research and Policy. “We have made remarkable progress to save children since 1990, but millions are still dying because of who they are and where they are born. With simple solutions like medicines, clean water, electricity and vaccines, we can change that reality for every child.”
 
Globally, in 2017, half of all deaths under five years of age took place in sub-Saharan Africa, and another 30 per cent in Southern Asia. In sub-Saharan Africa, 1 in 13 children died before their fifth birthday. In high-income countries, that number was 1 in 185.  
 
“Millions of babies and children should not still be dying every year from lack of access to water, sanitation, proper nutrition or basic health services,” said Dr. Princess Nono Simelela, Assistant Director-General for Family, Women and Children’s Health at WHO. “We must prioritize providing universal access to quality health services for every child, particularly around the time of birth and through the early years, to give them the best possible chance to survive and thrive.”
 
Most children under 5 die due to preventable or treatable causes such as complications during birth, pneumonia, diarrhea, neonatal sepsis and malaria. By comparison, among children between 5 and 14 years of age, injuries become a more prominent cause of death, especially from drowning and road traffic. Within this age group, regional differences also exist, with the risk of dying for a child from sub-Saharan Africa 15 times higher than in Europe.
 
“More than six million children dying before their fifteenth birthday is a cost we simply can’t afford,” said Timothy Evans, Senior Director and Head of the Health, Nutrition and Population Global Practice at the World Bank Group. “Ending preventable deaths and investing in the health of young people is a basic foundation for building countries’ human capital, which will drive their future growth and prosperity.”
 
For children everywhere, the most risky period of life is the first month. In 2017, 2.5 million newborns died in their first month. A baby born in sub-Saharan Africa or in Southern Asia was nine times more likely to die in the first month than a baby born in a high-income country. And progress towards saving newborns has been slower than for other children under five years of age since 1990.
 
Even within countries, disparities persist. Under-five mortality rates among children in rural areas are, on average, 50 per cent higher than among children in urban areas. In addition, those born to uneducated mothers are more than twice as likely to die before turning five than those born to mothers with a secondary or higher education.
  
“This new report highlights the remarkable progress since 1990 in reducing mortality among children and young adolescents,” said UN Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs Liu Zhenmin. “Reducing inequality by assisting the most vulnerable newborns, children and mothers is essential for achieving the target of the Sustainable Development Goals on ending preventable childhood deaths and for ensuring that no one is left behind.”

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has launched its second annual Goalkeepers Data Report, pointing to demographic trends that could stall unprecedented progress in reducing global poverty. While 1 billion people have lifted themselves out of poverty over the past 20 years, rapid population growth in the poorest countries, particularly in Africa, puts future progress at risk. If current trends continue, the number of extremely poor people in the world could stop its two-decade decline — and could even rise.

Despite the sobering projections, Bill and Melinda Gates express optimism that today’s growing youth populations could help drive progress. Investing in the health and education of young people in Africa could unlock productivity and innovation, leading to a ”third wave’’ of poverty reduction, which follows the first wave in China and the second in India.

“The conclusion is clear: To continue improving the human condition, our task now is to help create opportunities in Africa’s fastest-growing, poorest countries,” Bill and Melinda Gates write in the introduction. “This means investing in young people. Specifically, it means investing in their health and education.”

Goalkeepers: The Stories Behind the Data 2018 was co-authored and edited by Bill and Melinda Gates and produced in partnership with the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Using new data projections, the report reveals that poverty within Africa is concentrating in just a handful of countries, which are among the fastest-growing in the world. By 2050, more than 40 percent of the extremely poor people in the world will live in just two countries: Democratic Republic of the Congo and Nigeria.

In the past, large youth populations have helped drive economic growth and poverty reduction. The report makes the case for leaders to invest in the power and potential of youth to continue progress. Through essays by experts and journalists, the report examines promising approaches in health and education, highlighting ways that young people could help transform the continent. According to the report, investments in health and education, or “human capital,” in sub-Saharan Africa could increase GDP in the region by more than 90 percent by 2050.

Each year, the report tracks 18 data points from the UN Sustainable Development Goals, or Global Goals, including child and maternal deaths, stunting, access to contraceptives, HIV, malaria, extreme poverty, financial inclusion, and sanitation. IHME projections provide three potential scenarios for indicators: better and worse scenarios based upon accelerating or reducing the rate of progress, and projections based upon current trends. This year’s report examines four topics in greater depth:

The Family Planning chapter includes an essay by Alex Ezeh, a visiting fellow with the Centre for Global Development. The essay focuses on the importance of empowering women so they can exercise their fundamental right to choose the number of children they will have, when they will have them, and with whom. Ezeh notes that according to data from the United Nations, Africa’s population is projected to double in size by 2050 and could double again by 2100. If every woman in sub-Saharan Africa were empowered to have the number of children she wants, the projected population increase could be up to 30 percent smaller, from 4 billion to 2.8 billion. Most critically, this would enable more girls and women to expand their horizons, stay in school longer, have children later, earn more as adults, and invest more in their children. The chapter also explores how a novel family planning program in Kenya is providing young women with access to contraceptives.

The HIV chapter includes modelling by Imperial College London for what Zimbabwe’s HIV epidemic might look like in 2050 and, thus, what the nation’s overall future holds. Its large number of young people have the potential to drive economic growth, but only if they remain healthy. More than half of Zimbabweans are under 25 years old and reaching the age when they are most at risk for HIV infection. If Zimbabwe scales up currently available prevention tools over the next five years, it could see new infections among 15 to 29-year-olds drop by a third within a decade. The introduction of new prevention tools by 2030, including a highly efficacious vaccine, could further reduce new cases to approximately 400 per year. Together, these interventions could avert up to 364,000 new cases of HIV among young people.

The educationchapter includes an essay by Ashish Dhawan, chairman of the Central Square Foundation in India. Although more students in low- and lower-middle-income countries are enrolled in school today than ever before, many are not learning what they need to succeed. Unfortunately, the strategy for improving school outcomes is not as clear-cut as the strategy for improving school access. The chapter examines Vietnam’s success in achieving system-wide improvements. Though the country’s per capita GDP is only slightly higher than India’s, Vietnam’s 15-year-olds outperform students from wealthy countries like the United States and the United Kingdom on international tests.

The agriculturechapter includes analysis by James Thurlow, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute, estimating that by doubling agricultural productivity, Ghana could cut poverty in half, create hundreds of thousands of jobs, and drive economic growth. An essay by a local journalist follows the journey of a tomato from a field in rural Burkina Faso to a plate in Ghana, illustrating how many jobs it creates along the way.

Bill and Melinda Gates will produce the Goalkeepers Data Report every year through 2030, timing it to the annual gathering of world leaders in New York City for the UN General Assembly. The report is designed to highlight best practices and help hold the Gates Foundation, its partners, and leaders around the world accountable. It aims to document not just what is working, but where the world is falling short.

In conjunction with the report, Bill and Melinda Gates are once again co-hosting the Goalkeepers event in New York City during the UN General Assembly. On September 26, dynamic young leaders from government, business, technology, media, entertainment, and the nonprofit sector will discuss innovations and approaches to achieve the Global Goals.

 Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Tuesday said that his parliamentary constituency Varanasi was witnessing all-round development under his watch but care was being taken not to disturb its ancient flavour by conserving its rich culture and heritage.

He added that the central government was making serious efforts to also develop Varanasi as the “gateway to East India”. 

Addressing a large gathering of vocal locals and BJP supporters at the Banaras Hindu University (BHU) amphitheatre, Modi detailed the many projects being launched and inaugurated in the city and nearby villages to change the face of Varanasi.

“To make Varanasi a smart city, a gateway to East India, world class infrastructure is being brought in, transportation is being improved, LED Street lights are being installed, medical facilities are being improved and strengthened, roads are being laid and existing highways and roads are being expanded and widened,” Modi said.

He added that care was being taken not to disturb the temple city’s rich history and culture.

The Prime Minister, who celebrated his 68th birthday on Monday with school children and party workers here, also said he was doubly delighted each time he saw the people of Varanasi posting pictures of the city on social media.

He urged the people to roll out an unprecedented hospitality to the hundreds who would come here for the ‘Uttar Pradesh NRI [Non-Resident Indian] Divas’ in January 2019 so that they become brand ambassadors of tourism and goodwill for Varanasi.

He said the changing perception of Varanasi could be gauged by the fact that while in 2014 the footfall at the Babarpur airport was 8 lakh, it had grown to 21 lakh now.

Calling himself the “son of Kashi,” Modi said he felt blessed to have started a new year in his life with “the blessings of Lord Shiva and Ma Ganga”. 

“It also gives me a resolve to further work for the welfare and prosperity of the people of India.”

Speaking on various developmental projects since he was elected from Varanasi to the Lok Sabha in 2014, he said serious efforts were on to make the BHU a knowledge centre of the 21st century.

He accused the previous governments of leaving the fate of the city and its people to “Bholanath” (Lord Shiva). 

Modi said that before 2014, the city was in a mess and files pertaining to its development were buried. Without taking names, he accused the previous Samajwadi Party government of ignoring the constituency.

The Prime Minister said that it was only when a BJP government was voted to power in Uttar Pradesh that due attention was given to Kashi. 

Speaking about the underground cabling of electric wires in the city, he promised that the problem of low voltage in some localities and villages would soon be tackled.

A new bridge would be built over the Ganga to minimise the entry of trucks into the city and said that the Ring Road project was being expedited. 

Work on the Varanasi-Handi national waterway was on and soon ferries and cruises would be available along the route, Modi said. 

Efforts were on to clean the Ganga from Gangotri (its source) to Ganganagar (end point) for which Rs 21,000 crore worth of projects had been approved by his government. 

Earlier, the Prime Minister launched various projects and laid the foundation stones of a Vedic Science Centre at BHU and a Regional Institute of Ophthalmology. 

He gave away modern furnaces to potters and 500 honey bee boxes for honey collectors.

Modi started his address in Bhojpuri, to the delight of the hundreds of youngsters. 

The Prime Minister was on a two-day visit to Varanasi. On his birthday on Monday, he visited the Kashi Vishwanath temple.

Joining the country in observing the National Nutrition Month, the Akshaya Patra Foundation has started an outreach campaign on the critical cause of addressing hunger and malnutrition. As a part of this campaign, conscientious citizens are being encouraged to sign pledge cards committing to ‘no wastage of food’ and support under-served people by feeding them.

The signed pledge-cards will be sent to the Prime Minister’s Office to express the collective commitment and appeal to the Prime Minister to take up the topic, ‘ensuring access to nutrition for all’ in the upcoming ‘Mann ki Baat.’

The objective of the campaign is to spread awareness and create tangible action by involving thousands of people and critical stakeholders in the public and private sectors, in our movement against hunger and malnutrition (hidden hunger) on the occasion of National Nutrition Month. The campaign has found support from varied sections of society, ranging from private and Government schools, teachers, corporates, bureaucracy, and political leaders. As of now, over 15,000 signed pledge cards have been sent to the office of the Prime Minister. We are reaching out to more supporters for this campaign.

As of now, the Chief Ministers of Himachal Pradesh, Jai Ram Thakur;  Uttarakhand, Trivendra Singh Rawat;  Vasudev Devnani and  Arvind Pandey, the Education Ministers of Rajasthan and Uttarakhand respectively; Padma Shree awardee, Chef Sanjeev Kapoor; Mr. Mohit Anand – Managing Director, Kellogg’s India & South Asia; and several other prominent personalities have extended support to the campaign by taking the pledge.

Children with autism who indulge in drumming for just an hour a week are likely to have improved concentration, ability to follow instructions, as well as interaction with their peers, a study has showed.

The findings, led by Britain’s University of Chichester and University Centre Hartpury, showed that the students’ ability to follow their teachers’ instructions improved significantly and enhanced their social interactions between peers and members of school staff.

Observations of the weekly lessons also highlighted significant improvements in dexterity, rhythm and timing.

“This is a unique and remarkable research project that has demonstrated the positive impact on a pupil’s health and well-being following rock drumming practice,” said lead researcher Marcus Smith, from Chichester. 

“Rock drumming is a potent intervention for individuals experiencing brain disorders such as autism,” he added. 

The researchers found that drumming also enhanced movement control while performing daily tasks outside the school environment including an improved ability to concentrate during homework.

“Drumming has a unique blend of physical activity, coordination and musicality, all of which are known to be beneficial to well-being. It has been amazing to watch the children thrive and develop to this challenge,” explained Steve Draper, Dean Research and Knowledge Exchange from Hartpury. 

“Drumming has the potential to positively impact a wide range of people.”

For the study, published in the International Journal of Developmental Difficulties, the team involved pupils who took part in a 10-week drumming programme comprising two 30-minute sessions each week. 

Class teachers evaluated behavioural changes within the classroom across the 10-week drumming intervention, with preliminary evidence highlighting positive outcomes. 

 Almost all parties including the ruling BJP’s junior partner the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT) on Friday demanded the rescheduling of the September 30 panchayat elections to ensure the participation of all parties.

The Opposition Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M) led Left Front, the Congress and the IPFT, a tribal-based party, separately urged the State Election Commission to reschedule the ongoing election process as they claimed that “massive violence prevented their nominees to file papers”.

These parties alleged that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) workers prevented their candidates from submitting nomination papers in 35 blocks through violence on Monday and Tuesday. The BJP denied the accusation.

According to police, on Monday and Tuesday at least 25 workers of the BJP, IPFT and the Congress and over 10 policemen including two senior officers were injured in a series of clashes between the rival factions of political parties in at least 12 places across Tripura.

“There is no atmosphere of holding free and fair panchayat elections in Tripura. Out of 35 blocks, non-BJP parties were not allowed to file nomination papers by the ruling party supporters and their sponsored anti-socials in 28 blocks,” CPI-M central committee member Gautam Das told the media after the meeting with Tripura State Election Commissioner G. Kameswara Rao.

Das, who led a Left Front delegation to the State Election Commission, said that they have told the Election Commissioner that most candidates belonging to non-BJP parties were attacked and their nomination papers and other documents were snatched.

“Even all party meetings convened by the returning officers (BDOs) in seven blocks were attacked by the BJP supporters. We have been demanding free and fair elections but the state government and the state election commission failed to keep the situation conducive for conducting a smooth election,” the Left leader said.

He said despite the demand of almost all parties except the BJP to reschedule the panchayat elections, a farcical election process was going on. “Now elections must be deferred and full protection given to the candidates and ensure all parties’ candidates are able to submit their nomination papers.”

The IPFT and the Congress also separately urged the election commission to reschedule the panchayat polls “to uphold democracy in the rural areas”.

The by-elections to a record number of 3,386 seats in gram panchayats (3,207 seats), panchayat samitis (161) and zila parishads (18) were necessitated by large-scale resignations of elected representatives of Left parties and the death of some representatives.

According to a state election commission official, for the 3,386 seats the ruling BJP has put up 3381 candidates, the CPI-M fielded 110 candidates, the Congress 125, the IPFT 66 and independents four candidates.

The Congress party on Friday asked the Kerala government to explain why service firm KPMG is being paid Rs 66 lakh to design a website of a state government organisation.

The Congress had already expressed its reservation over the selection of the international company as consultant partner for rebuilding the state in the wake of the worst flood disaster that it faced in nearly a century.

“Now with the government order of giving the job of web designing of Roots-Norka to KPMG for a whopping Rs 66 lakh, the state government should explain the relation between the government and the firm,” Leader of Opposition Ramesh Chennithala said.

He also reminded them that the government had earlier said that the KPMG was doing the rebuilding of Kerala for free.

“What’s more important is that the contract to redesign the website was given to KPMG, on August 17 — the day when the state was passing through its worst ever floods,” the senior Congress leader said. 

“It should be noted that the job of redesigning a website was given to KPMG, when there are several state government agencies who are experts in this job. 

“The state government owes an explanation on why this happened and should come clean on if there are any more contracts that has been awarded on the sly,” added Chennithala.

Chennithala earlier in September had written to State Industries Minister E.P. Jayarajan, who is spearheading the rebuilding operations, to first verify the numerous complaints that have surfaced against KPMG, even if their offer is free.

Chennithala said the government should instead accept the offer of the Netherlands government to help rebuild the state.

Jayarajan then had said that there was nothing binding on the state government with the KPMG and there was nothing wrong in getting a report from them for free.

India has climbed one spot to 130 in the latest human development rankings released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). India’s HDI value for 2017 is 0.640, which put the country in the medium human development category. Between 1990 and 2017, India’s HDI value increased from 0.427 to 0.640, an increase of nearly 50 percent – and an indicator of the country’s remarkable achievement in lifting millions of people out of poverty.

Of a total of 189 countries, Norway, Switzerland, Australia, Ireland and Germany lead the ranking, while Niger, the Central African Republic, South Sudan, Chad and Burundi have the lowest scores in the HDI’s measurement of national achievements in health, education and income. Within South Asia, India’s HDI value is above the average of 0.638 for the region, with Bangladesh and Pakistan, countries with similar population size, being ranked 136 and 150 respectively.

The overall trend globally is toward continued human development improvements, with many countries moving up through the human development categories: out of the 189 countries for which the HDI is calculated, 59 countries are today in the very high human development group and only 38 countries fall in the low HDI group. Just eight years ago in 2010, the figures were 46 and 49countries respectively.

Movements in the HDI are driven by changes in health, education and income. Health has improved considerably as shown by life expectancy at birth, which has increased by almost seven years globally, with Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia showing the greatest progress, each experiencing increases of about 11 years since 1990. And, today’s school-age children can expect to be in school for 3.4 years longer than those in 1990.

Between 1990 and 2017, India’s life expectancy at birth too increased by nearly 11 years, with even more significant gains in expected years of schooling. Today’s Indian school-age children can expect to stay in school for 4.7 years longer than in 1990. Whereas, India’s GNI per capita increased by a staggering 266.6 percent between 1990 and 2017.

Average HDI levels have risen significantly since 1990-22 percent globally and 51percent in least developed countries – reflecting that on average people are living longer, are more educated and have greater income. But there remain massive differences across the world in people’s well-being.

A child born today in Norway, the country with the highest HDI, can expect to live beyond 82 years old and spend almost 18 years in school. While a child born in Niger, the country with the lowest HDI, can expect only to live to 60 and spend just five years in school. Such striking differences can be seen again and again.

“On average, a child born today in a country with low human development can expect to live just over 60 years, while a child born in a country with very high human development can expect to live to almost 80.   Similarly, children in low human development countries can expect to be in school seven years less than children in very high human development countries,” said Achim Steiner UNDP Administrator. Â“While these statistics present a stark picture in themselves, they also speak to the tragedy of millions of individuals whose lives are affected by inequity and lost opportunities, neither of which are inevitable.”

A closer look at the HDI’s components sheds light on the unequal distribution of outcomes in education, life expectancy and income within countries. The Inequality-Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) allows one to compare levels of inequality within countries, and the greater the inequality, the more a country’s HDI falls.

While significant inequality occurs in many countries, including in some of the wealthiest ones, on average it takes a bigger toll on countries with lower human development levels. Low and medium human development countries lose respectively 31 and 25 percent of their human development level from inequality, while for very high human development countries, the average loss is 11 percent.

“While there is ground for optimism that the gaps are narrowing, disparities in people’s well-being are still unacceptably wide. Inequality in all its forms and dimensions, between and within countries, limits people’s choices and opportunities, withholding progress,” said Selim Jahan, Director of the Human Development Report Office at UNDP. 

As much as 26.8 percent of India’s HDI value is lost on account of inequalities — a greater loss than for most of its South Asian neighbours (the average loss for the region is 26.1 percent). This confirms that inequality remains a challenge for India as it progresses economically, though the Government of India and various state governments have, through a variety of social protection measures, attempted to ensure that the gains of economic development are shared widely and reach the farthest first.

Francine Pickup, Country Director, UNDP India, noted the steady progress made by India in improving its HDI value. “The Government of India is committed to improve the quality of life for all its people. The success of India’s national development schemes like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Swachh Bharat, Make in India, and initiatives aimed at universalizing school education and health care, will be crucial in ensuring that the upward trend on human development accelerates and also achieve the Prime Minister’s vision of development for all and the key principle of the Sustainable Development Goals — to leave no one behind.”

One key source of inequality within countries is the gap in opportunities, achievements and empowerment between women and men. Worldwide the average HDI for women is six percent lower than for men, due to women’s lower income and educational attainment in many countries.

Although there has been laudable progress in the number of girls attending school, there remain big differences between other key aspects of men and women’s lives. Women’s empowerment remains a particular challenge.

Global labour force participation rates for women are lower than for men-49 percent versus 75 percent.  And when women are in the labour market, their unemployment rates are 24 percent higher than their male counterparts. Women globally also do much more unpaid domestic and care work than men.

Overall, women’s share of parliamentary seats remains low although it varies across regions, from 17.5 and 18 percent in South Asia and the Arab States, respectively; to 29 percent in Latin America and Caribbean and OECD countries. Violence against women affects all societies, and in some regions childhood marriage and high adolescence birth rates undermine the opportunities for many young women and girls. In South Asia, 29 percent of women between the ages of 20 and 24 were married before their 18^thbirthday.

These challenges are also evident in India, where despite considerable progress at the policy and legislative levels, women remain significantly less politically, economically and socially empowered than men. For instance, women hold only 11.6 percent of parliamentary seats, and only 39 percent of adult women have reached at least a secondary level of education as compared to 64 percent males.  Female participation in the labour market is 27.2 percent compared to 78.8 for men. Still, India performs better than its neighbours Bangladesh and Pakistan, ranking 127 out 160 countries on the Gender Inequality Index.

US-based Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) President Rhea Suh has announced a partnership with the Gujarat-based Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) to improve the lives of women and their families.

The NRDC and SEWA have supported thousands of women salt farmers in getting solar-powered pumps to replace diesel pumps in Gujarat.

This source of clean, cheap energy does three things, Suh told .

“No diesel means there’s a major drop in air pollution, and we have better health. With far less emissions, it helps address climate change. So it helps families move out of poverty,” she said.

Her announcement came at a side event a day ahead of the Global Climate Action Summita¿s two-day opening plenary session that began in this California city on Thursday.

“We went from a pilot of a dozen solar pumps, to 200, to 400, to 700 and now we are expanding to 15,000,” she said.

“We’ve helped thousands of families improve their lives.”

“When we interviewed some of the members and asked, ‘What are you doing with the money?’ They said the’re using it for the education for their children,” an energetic Suh said.

“Like myself, they have young daughters, and now a new generation has access to a better, brighter future.

“This is a prime example on how we can all come together and help lift women and girls out of poverty while we take on climate change,” she said.

The NRDC and SEWA are launching a new project on “Village Level Clean Energy Access” to increase access to clean energy for everything from solar-powered lights to cleaner cook stoves to more efficient appliances.

“We’re starting with two pilot villages and plan to scale to 10 villages across India.”

On the occasion, a new case study titled “Worth Their Salt” was also released.

“These families don’t just benefit from clean energy in the salt fields. They will benefit from clean energy in all aspects of their lives, and that’s what this new initiative is, true sustainable development,” Suh, while poiting towards two community leaders from Gujarat who were invited at the project launch ceremony.

Countries need to keep global temperatures in check by meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement, or more people could die because of extreme temperatures, researchers have warned.

The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015 under the auspices of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), binds nations to hold warming well below 2 degrees Celsius in global mean temperature, relative to pre-industrial levels. 

It also urges countries to make additional efforts to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The study by researchers from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) indicated dramatic increases of heat-related deaths under extreme warming (3 degrees Celsius and 4 degrees Celsius) compared to the mildest threshold (1.5 degrees Celsius), with additional excess mortality ranging from over 0.73 per cent to nearly 9 per cent across all regions. 

“Our projections suggest that large increases in temperature-related deaths could be limited in most regions if warming was kept below 2 degrees Celsius,” said lead author Ana Maria Vicedo-Cabrera from the varsity. 

The net difference remained positive and high in most of the areas, even when potential decreases in cold-related deaths were considered.

However, net increase in deaths was still projected for warmer regions such as South America, South Europe, and South-East Asia (with changes ranging from more than 0.19 per cent to nearly one per cent), while in cooler regions the excess mortality was predicted to stay stable or drop slightly.

“Under extreme changes in climate, large parts of the world could experience a dramatic increase in excess mortality due to heat. This would not be balanced by decreases in cold-related deaths,” Vicedo-Cabrera added.

The results, appearing in the journal Climatic Change, is based on historical data on temperature-related deaths from 451 locations in 23 countries with different socio-economic and climatic conditions. 

Currently, we are on a trajectory to reach over 3 degrees Celsius of warming, and if this trend continues there would be serious consequences for health in many parts of the world, the researchers noted.

“Efforts to limit the increase in global temperature to below 1.5 degrees Celsius could provide additional benefits in tropical or arid regions, including the most populous and often poorest countries,” Vicedo-Cabrera said.